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Climate change at the heart of banking risks

What impacts do rare climate events have? This was the topic of the round table supported by the " Stress Test " Chair at RESIM 2021. While banking risks due to climate change are now included in the regulations, their impact on people and the environment must be taken into account.

Since 1997, the Rare-Event Simulation Workshop (RESIM) has been an interdisciplinary event bringing together experts in rare event simulation theory and applications. With more than 150 participants from 22 different countries from Europe, America and Africa, the 13th edition of RESIM in May 2021 addressed stress testing in finance, uncertainty quantification and environmental risks.

Rare climatic events and their impacts were the main issues discussed during the round table supported by the "Stress Test" Chair held by Emmanuel Gobet, researcher at the Centre for Applied Mathematics (CMAP*) at RESIM 2021. It brought together different expertises and points of view with speakers coming from consulting, industry and research in finance and insurance, meteorology, mechanical engineering and complex systems.

This interdisciplinarity is necessary to understand the problems posed by climate change. The core of the Chair, the stress test, is the quantification of the resilience of banking systems to different rare events. Until now, work on climate risks has been carried out solely in economics or physics, and very often without dialogue between disciplines. Coordination is imperative to analyse and build physical, economic and statistical models that go beyond the expertise of these research fields taken separately.

Emmanuel Gobet also points out that "our climate change impact metrics are not necessarily the right ones: damage to property is anticipated, but not damage to the environment and the population, because it is less quantifiable. When we experience heat waves at 45°C, the damage to property will be low, but the human dimensions must not be lost sight of.

*CMAP: a joint research unit CNRS, École Polytechnique - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

>> about the Chair:
Founded in 2018 and headed by Emmanuel Gobet, the "Stress Test, Risk Management & Financial Steering" Chair studies the resilience of banking activities to shocks of various kinds (credit, market, climate, cyber security, reputation...). Supported by BNP Paribas, this research chair benefits from their economic expertise and regulatory experience to better understand the issues and problems of the financial system. Thus, the applied mathematics work coordinated by Emmanuel Gobet proposes innovative approaches to risk modelling, simulation and statistical estimation.